July 9, 2010 - Oberhausen, Germany
Football fans and news media anxiously wait outside the tank of what has become the most famous octopus in the world. Paul the Octopus, a two year old member of the species octopus vulgaris sits at the bottom of the tank, near two soccer balls, waiting, watching...
An Octopus?
Paul always picked Germany to win.
Six times he was asked to make a choice, and all six times, he picked Germany, including the final. However, neither Paul nor the Germans were perfect, both winning four of six matches. Germany would lose to Spain in the Euro finals in 2008.
The 2010 World Cup
What Paul lacked in accuracy in 2008, he made up for in national pride. Having always picked the German team to win, he showed his loyalty to his home country's chances. For this, he was rewarded.
In 2010 the German news channel NTV covered his predictions live. Again, Paul picked Germany to win. They beat Australia 4-0 in the first game of Group Stage play. For the next match against Serbia, Paul did the unthinkable, and went against the home team of Germany, picking Serbia. However, Paul was right; the Serbian squad would win 1-0. Paul helped smooth things out, picking Germany to win vs Ghana and England, both of which he picked correctly, moving him to a perfect 4-0 record.
By now, the minor buzz was turning into a major story in the sporting world. Other news agencies started following the story, including ESPN, America's premier sports network. In a country where most do not follow soccer or the World Cup, Paul the Octopus was news.
The Price of Success
Things started getting ugly for Paul when it came to the Quarter-Finals. Paul was perfect in World Cup play, and for the Germany-Argentina match, he picked Germany to win.
Then came the trouble, and the first of the threats.
Angry Argentine fans threatened to kill Paul and serve him in paella. The Argentinian newspaper, El Diaeven, printed a recipe on how to prepare Paul, should anyone capture him. Extra security was added at Sea Life. Both Paul and Germany survived, winning 4-0. Paul was now 5-0 in World Cup play. He survived that scare, only to face a worse one.
In the Semi-final match of Germany vs Spain, Paul was called upon again. He hovered over the Spanish box, before moving to the German one. Perhaps remembering the 2008 European finals, he paused, and moved back, and to the horror of German fans watching on live TV, he chose Spain. Germans were outraged. Paul received death threats from angry Germans. Spain's Prime Minister offered Paul sanctuary in Spain. The Spanish minister of Environment and Fisheries suggested a moratorium.
Redemption and finale
Paul obtained a small degree of redemption when he predicted a Germany victory in the 3rd place match, with a win over Uruguay. Germany would go on to win 3-2. Paul's streak was perfect. All that was left was one more game: Spain vs. The Netherlands.
By this time, the story of Paul's "psychic" powers were all over the world. Even casual sports fans knew who Paul the Octopus was and his "powers" of prediction. On July 9, two days before the final, in front of cameras and media from around the world, Paul was asked to choose again. Unlike his hesitation the last time he picked Spain (over Germany), there was no hesitation or doubt, as to who Paul thought would be the winner. It was Spain.
On July 11, Paul was proven right, again. He finished the World Cup a perfect 8-0.
How is this possible?
The odds of randomly picking the winner eight times in a 50-50 coin flip would be 1 in 256, assuming there was nothing influencing the outcome. Was anything influencing Paul?
Several theories have been suggested, the most popular being the flags had something to do with his picks. Although Octopus Vulgaris is most likely color blind, there are similarities in the patten of the flags that he picked most often. Of his picks, Germany (11 times), Spain (2) and Serbia (1), all three have a similar horizontal stripe pattern. According to Matthew Fuller, aquarist at the facility where Paul was born, octopuses are intelligent invertebrates who can recognize shapes and patterns.
However, several of the teams he did not pick, like The Netherlands, Austria, Croatia, Poland and Ghana also have a similar layouts in their flags. And even if Paul was able to recognize the German flag, why did he mysteriously choose against it vs. Spain, when previously, he had shown a preference to Germany when faced with the same choice?
Retirement and the end
After the World Cup, a minor controversy soon brewed over who really "owned" Paul. While the German's claimed him as one of their own, English sports enthusiast say he is technically a British citizen, having been born in England and only loaned to the Germany branch of Sea Life. Italy claimed him too, saying he was caught in Italian waters. The French said he was found near Elba, making him a French Citizen. In the wake of the World Cup victory, Spain kept their offer of asylum open offering him honorary Spanish Citizenship. Commercial offers came forward too, with one Spanish businessman offering nearly $38,000 for Paul to be the mascot for a food festival.
Paul remained in Germany and retired from the business of prognostication after the World Cup. He retired at the top of his game, noted ESPN, joining the likes of Jim Brown, Sandy Koufax, and Bjorn Borg. Sadly, unlike those other sporting icons, Paul soon passed away in October 2010, aged 2 1/2, a normal life span for octopus vulgaris His obituary was carried around the world. No compelling explanation was ever made to explain his unprecedented streak of luck.
In 2011, the Germany Sea Life Center where Paul lived, unveiled a six foot plastic replica of Paul, sitting on a soccer ball. Paul's ashes were placed in an urn, inside the ball.
In 2012 a documentary was released titled "The Life and times of Paul the Psychic Octopus", which seeks to answer how a simple octopus in a German aquarium was able to successfully pick eight world cup matches in a row. I haven't seen the movie, but I suspect the answer will forever be unknown.
Football fans and news media anxiously wait outside the tank of what has become the most famous octopus in the world. Paul the Octopus, a two year old member of the species octopus vulgaris sits at the bottom of the tank, near two soccer balls, waiting, watching...
thinking?
No one is sure what this cephalopod is really doing when he looks out of his tank. Then it begins: two plastic cases are lowered into the tank, each one contains a small mussel. The two cases are indistinguishable, aside from the flags on the front: on the left, the red, white and blue horizontal bars of The Netherlands; on the right, the red and gold of Spain.
Paul doesn't hesitate; he goes right, opening the lid of the Spanish box and eating the treat inside. Within moments the news travels the world. Spaniards celebrate. The Dutch cry fowl, claiming it was rigged, as Paul was closer to the Spanish case. Most still wonder how and why an octopus can pick a soccer matches, and did he pick the finale correctly.
Two days later, Spain wins its first World Cup with a 1-0 victory over The Netherlands. Paul the Octopus has picked his eighth correct game in a row.
An Octopus?
The sporting world has had a long association with animals. In early Roman days, contests of man vs animal were used to entertain crowds at the coliseum. As sports evolved, animals were commonly used as mascots, or symbols of their teams. In 1945, Billy Sianis put the infamous Curse of the Billy Goat on the Chicago Cubs, after officials at Wrigley Field made him remove the goat he brought to the game, a curse which still holds to this day.
Animals had also been used as predictors of sports before, too. Almost every type of animal had been used to predict almost every sort of game beforehand, including camels, tigers, elephants, and rhinos. So what was it about Paul that captured everyone's attention?
He was almost always right.
The Curious Octopus
Paul was born in at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England in 2008. He was then moved to their facility in Oberhausen, Germany, where the staff noticed something unusual about Paul. PETA claims that octopuses are intelligent creatures, with memories and distinct personalities. However, there was something different about Paul. According to Daniel Fey, of Sea Life:
There was something about the way he looked at our visitors when they came close to the tank. It was so unusual, so we tried to find out what his special talents were.Apparently, that "special talent" was picking football matches. It started in 2008 at the EEFA Euro tourney, where Paul was "asked" to pick the outcome for Germany's matches. Two plastic boxes were lowered, each containing a treat, with the national flag of the two teams who were to play, one of which was German's.
Paul always picked Germany to win.
Six times he was asked to make a choice, and all six times, he picked Germany, including the final. However, neither Paul nor the Germans were perfect, both winning four of six matches. Germany would lose to Spain in the Euro finals in 2008.
The 2010 World Cup
What Paul lacked in accuracy in 2008, he made up for in national pride. Having always picked the German team to win, he showed his loyalty to his home country's chances. For this, he was rewarded.
In 2010 the German news channel NTV covered his predictions live. Again, Paul picked Germany to win. They beat Australia 4-0 in the first game of Group Stage play. For the next match against Serbia, Paul did the unthinkable, and went against the home team of Germany, picking Serbia. However, Paul was right; the Serbian squad would win 1-0. Paul helped smooth things out, picking Germany to win vs Ghana and England, both of which he picked correctly, moving him to a perfect 4-0 record.
By now, the minor buzz was turning into a major story in the sporting world. Other news agencies started following the story, including ESPN, America's premier sports network. In a country where most do not follow soccer or the World Cup, Paul the Octopus was news.
The Price of Success
Things started getting ugly for Paul when it came to the Quarter-Finals. Paul was perfect in World Cup play, and for the Germany-Argentina match, he picked Germany to win.
Then came the trouble, and the first of the threats.
Angry Argentine fans threatened to kill Paul and serve him in paella. The Argentinian newspaper, El Diaeven, printed a recipe on how to prepare Paul, should anyone capture him. Extra security was added at Sea Life. Both Paul and Germany survived, winning 4-0. Paul was now 5-0 in World Cup play. He survived that scare, only to face a worse one.
In the Semi-final match of Germany vs Spain, Paul was called upon again. He hovered over the Spanish box, before moving to the German one. Perhaps remembering the 2008 European finals, he paused, and moved back, and to the horror of German fans watching on live TV, he chose Spain. Germans were outraged. Paul received death threats from angry Germans. Spain's Prime Minister offered Paul sanctuary in Spain. The Spanish minister of Environment and Fisheries suggested a moratorium.
On Monday, I shall be at the European Council of Ministers and I shall be asking for a [fishing] ban on Paul the octopus so the Germans do not eat him!Paul survived the threats, but Germany did not, losing to Spain 1-0. Paul was a perfect 6-0.
Redemption and finale
Paul obtained a small degree of redemption when he predicted a Germany victory in the 3rd place match, with a win over Uruguay. Germany would go on to win 3-2. Paul's streak was perfect. All that was left was one more game: Spain vs. The Netherlands.
By this time, the story of Paul's "psychic" powers were all over the world. Even casual sports fans knew who Paul the Octopus was and his "powers" of prediction. On July 9, two days before the final, in front of cameras and media from around the world, Paul was asked to choose again. Unlike his hesitation the last time he picked Spain (over Germany), there was no hesitation or doubt, as to who Paul thought would be the winner. It was Spain.
On July 11, Paul was proven right, again. He finished the World Cup a perfect 8-0.
How is this possible?
The odds of randomly picking the winner eight times in a 50-50 coin flip would be 1 in 256, assuming there was nothing influencing the outcome. Was anything influencing Paul?
Several theories have been suggested, the most popular being the flags had something to do with his picks. Although Octopus Vulgaris is most likely color blind, there are similarities in the patten of the flags that he picked most often. Of his picks, Germany (11 times), Spain (2) and Serbia (1), all three have a similar horizontal stripe pattern. According to Matthew Fuller, aquarist at the facility where Paul was born, octopuses are intelligent invertebrates who can recognize shapes and patterns.
However, several of the teams he did not pick, like The Netherlands, Austria, Croatia, Poland and Ghana also have a similar layouts in their flags. And even if Paul was able to recognize the German flag, why did he mysteriously choose against it vs. Spain, when previously, he had shown a preference to Germany when faced with the same choice?
Retirement and the end
After the World Cup, a minor controversy soon brewed over who really "owned" Paul. While the German's claimed him as one of their own, English sports enthusiast say he is technically a British citizen, having been born in England and only loaned to the Germany branch of Sea Life. Italy claimed him too, saying he was caught in Italian waters. The French said he was found near Elba, making him a French Citizen. In the wake of the World Cup victory, Spain kept their offer of asylum open offering him honorary Spanish Citizenship. Commercial offers came forward too, with one Spanish businessman offering nearly $38,000 for Paul to be the mascot for a food festival.
Paul remained in Germany and retired from the business of prognostication after the World Cup. He retired at the top of his game, noted ESPN, joining the likes of Jim Brown, Sandy Koufax, and Bjorn Borg. Sadly, unlike those other sporting icons, Paul soon passed away in October 2010, aged 2 1/2, a normal life span for octopus vulgaris His obituary was carried around the world. No compelling explanation was ever made to explain his unprecedented streak of luck.
In 2011, the Germany Sea Life Center where Paul lived, unveiled a six foot plastic replica of Paul, sitting on a soccer ball. Paul's ashes were placed in an urn, inside the ball.In 2012 a documentary was released titled "The Life and times of Paul the Psychic Octopus", which seeks to answer how a simple octopus in a German aquarium was able to successfully pick eight world cup matches in a row. I haven't seen the movie, but I suspect the answer will forever be unknown.
